The expected decision by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to end his presidential bid comes as his poll numbers have fallen to the level of a run-of-the-mill third-party candidate, after initially showing notably strong support.
And while it is hard to foresee the effect his decision might have on the election, an endorsement of former President Donald J. Trump would be unlikely to change the nature of the race, even if it was well-received by Mr. Kennedy’s supporters.
This is in part because it is hard to know how many of Mr. Kennedy’s supporters will vote in November. They are less likely than others to have voted in 2020, and are also less likely to say they will vote come November.
And it has not been clear which candidate Mr. Kennedy draws more votes from now that President Biden is out of the race. In recent Times/Siena polls, when pushed, Mr. Kennedy’s supporters were more inclined to support Mr. Trump. But other recent high-quality polls had found him to be pulling support from Vice President Kamala Harris.
That is partially a reflection of how quickly public opinion has been changing over the last few weeks. And when high-quality polls show different findings on similar questions, it is often an indication that the opinions being measured are not strongly held.
In fact, only a minority of Mr. Kennedy’s supporters in recent Times/Siena polls said they would definitely vote for him, an indication that they might still be making up their minds.